Datadog

DDOG· Nasdaq· Developer tools

Price of record
$235.27
Oct 30
Base value
$136.28
Bear $59.76 · Bull $223.89
Price vs base
+72.6%
Stance
Watch
Score
5.7
Market cap
$0
P/FCF
0.0x
EV/Sales
-1.0x
FCF margin
29.2%
ROIC, 5 yr avg
–
$235.27

Closing price on October 30, 2026, recorded by an editor

Our base value
$136.28 72.6% above

Where the price sits on our values

Bear value
$59.76
Base value
$136.28
Bull value
$223.89
Price of record
$235.27
72.6% above base

Recorded closes against our base value then

Closed onClosePrice vs base
2026-10-30$235.27–

Prices are closes we record when we publish a view and when we check on a company. An owner reads the price against the value, not by the minute.

Company statistics

From the 10-Ks, computed in code · point at a figure for its formula

Our view

Stance
Watch
Base value
$136.28
Bear / bull
$59.76 / $223.89
Price vs base
+72.6%
Implied growth
34.7%
Score
5.7 / 10

Profile · FY2025

Market cap
$0
Enterprise value
-$3.5B
Diluted shares
363.5M
Revenue
$3.4B
Free cash flow
$1.0B
Owner earnings
$249.9M

Valuation · FY2025

P/E
0.0x
P/FCF
0.0x
P/Owner earnings
0.0x
EV/Sales
-1.0x
EV/FCF
-3.5x
P/B
0.0x

Margins · FY2025

Gross
80.0%
Operating
-1.3%
Net
3.1%
Free cash flow
29.2%
Owner earnings
7.3%
Stock pay
21.9%

Returns

ROIC, FY2025
-15.6%
ROIC, 5 yr avg
–
ROE, FY2025
2.9%
ROE, 5 yr avg
1.3%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue, 3 yr
26.9%
Revenue, 5 yr
41.5%
Revenue, 8 yr
55.4%
Diluted EPS, 3 yr
–
Diluted EPS, 5 yr
–
Diluted EPS, 8 yr
–
Free cash flow, 3 yr
37.7%
Free cash flow, 5 yr
57.4%
Free cash flow, 8 yr
74.8%

Financial health · FY2025

Cash and investments
$4.5B
Total debt
$983.4M
Net cash
$3.5B
Debt/Equity
0.3x
Debt/FCF
1.0x

Shareholder returns · FY2025

Dividend yield
–
Payout ratio
–
Buyback yield
–
Shareholder yield
–
Share count, 5 yr
3.9%

Valuation

Computed from the latest 10-K
Bear value
$59.76
Base value
$136.28
Bull value
$223.89
Price
$235.27
72.6% above base

At $235.27 the price implies revenue growth of 34.7% a year for 5 years, with the base case's other assumptions.

AssumptionBearBaseBull
Revenue growth a year12.0%20.0%25.0%
Free cash flow margin, final year25.0%30.0%34.0%
Share count change a year+2.5%+2.0%+1.5%
Exit multiple of free cash flow22.0x32.0x38.0x
Discount rate10.0%10.0%10.0%
Years555
Value per share today$59.76$136.28$223.89
How these values are computed

Starting from FY2025: revenue $3.4B, 363.5M diluted shares, net cash $3.5B. Final-year free cash flow at the exit multiple, per final share, discounted to today, plus today's net cash per share.

  • Bear: Usage optimisation and open-source competition slow growth.
  • Base: About 20% growth with steady cash margins.
  • Bull: AI observability adds a second growth leg.

Scorecard

5.7
Scorecard: DDOG510Technology edge8/10Switching costs7/10Growth runway8/10Profitability6/10Capital allocation5/10Valuation0/10
DDOG5.7Pick an axis to read the reasons.

Ratings

Five axes judged with a reason; valuation computed from base value and price
Rating
Technology edge8 · Strong

One platform over metrics, traces, logs and security, ingesting enormous volumes reliably.

Switching costs7 · Strong

Instrumentation and dashboards embed deeply; open standards make the data more portable over time.

Growth runway8 · Strong

About 28% a year with AI workloads adding demand.

Profitability6 · Average

30% free cash flow margin, but stock pay of 22% of revenue leaves owner earnings near 7%.

Capital allocation5 · Average

No buybacks; dilution of 1 to 2% a year.

Valuation0 · Poor

$235.27 is 73% above our base value of $136.28.

Research

View 1 · November 1, 2026

The business

Datadog collects metrics, traces and logs from a company's servers, containers, databases and applications and turns them into dashboards, alerts and investigations. Engineers install its agent and libraries once and then add products: infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, security, real-user monitoring and observability for AI applications.

Pricing is mostly usage-based. Revenue in FY2025 was $3.4B, up 27.7%.

Moat and switching costs

Instrumentation is the moat: once Datadog's agent and libraries are in every service, its dashboards are how on-call engineers think, and the history is in Datadog. Adding a product is a click; replacing the platform is a project.

Usage pricing cuts both ways. Customers optimise their bills (2022 to 2023 was a hard period), and open-source tooling (OpenTelemetry, Grafana) makes the collection layer more portable over time.

How the technology shows up in the numbers

Gross margin of 80% and free cash flow of $1.0B in FY2025 (about 30% of revenue). Stock pay was $751M, so owner earnings were about $250M and GAAP operating margin was near zero. The share count rose 1.3% in FY2025. Net cash of $3.5B.

Thesis

Every new application, and especially AI applications, needs observability, and Datadog wins most of the cloud-native market. The case rests on growth staying above 20% while stock pay falls as a share of revenue.

We are watching for the owner economics to catch up with the business quality.

Risks

  • Customers optimising usage when cloud budgets tighten.
  • OpenTelemetry and cheaper open-source back ends commoditising collection.
  • Stock pay staying above 20% of revenue.

What would change our mind

  • Owner earnings rising toward 15% of revenue (a reason to own).
  • Net revenue retention falling well below 110%.
  • Large customers moving telemetry to cheaper back ends.

Updates

0 since the first view

No updates since the view was published.

Financials: ten years from the 10-Ks

Reported numbers open their filing · computed ones show the formula · ˢ split-adjusted

Revenue

$3.4B

+55.4% a year over 8 years

FY2017: Revenue $100.8MFY2018: Revenue $198.1MFY2019: Revenue $362.8MFY2020: Revenue $603.5MFY2021: Revenue $1.0BFY2022: Revenue $1.7BFY2023: Revenue $2.1BFY2024: Revenue $2.7BFY2025: Revenue $3.4B
FY2017FY2025

Margins

Gross80.0%Operating-1.3%Net3.1%

FY2025

FY2017: Gross 76.8%, Operating -2.9%, Net -2.6%FY2018: Gross 76.5%, Operating -5.6%, Net -5.4%FY2019: Gross 75.5%, Operating -5.6%, Net -4.6%FY2020: Gross 78.4%, Operating -2.3%, Net -4.1%FY2021: Gross 77.2%, Operating -1.9%, Net -2.0%FY2022: Gross 79.3%, Operating -3.5%, Net -3.0%FY2023: Gross 80.7%, Operating -1.6%, Net 2.3%FY2024: Gross 80.8%, Operating 2.0%, Net 6.8%FY2025: Gross 80.0%, Operating -1.3%, Net 3.1%
FY2017FY2025

Free cash flow and owner earnings

Free cash flow$1.0BOwner earnings$249.9M

Free cash flow +74.8% a year

FY2017: Free cash flow $11.5M, Owner earnings $8.4MFY2018: Free cash flow $1.2M, Owner earnings -$4.1MFY2019: Free cash flow $10.9M, Owner earnings -$8.1MFY2020: Free cash flow $103.7M, Owner earnings $29.3MFY2021: Free cash flow $276.6M, Owner earnings $112.9MFY2022: Free cash flow $383.1M, Owner earnings $20.0MFY2023: Free cash flow $632.4M, Owner earnings $150.1MFY2024: Free cash flow $835.9M, Owner earnings $265.5MFY2025: Free cash flow $1.0B, Owner earnings $249.9M
FY2017FY2025

Diluted shares

363.5M

+492.7% over 8 years, net dilution

FY2017: Diluted shares 61.3MFY2018: Diluted shares 71.0MFY2019: Diluted shares 139.9MFY2020: Diluted shares 300.4MFY2021: Diluted shares 309.0MFY2022: Diluted shares 315.4MFY2023: Diluted shares 350.3MFY2024: Diluted shares 358.6MFY2025: Diluted shares 363.5M
FY2017FY2025

Return on invested capital

-15.6%

FY2025

FY2017: ROIC –FY2018: ROIC –FY2019: ROIC –FY2020: ROIC –FY2021: ROIC –FY2022: ROIC –FY2023: ROIC -14.6%FY2024: ROIC 35.3%FY2025: ROIC -15.6%
FY2017FY2025

Net cash

$3.5B

$3.5B more cash than debt

FY2017: Net cash –FY2018: Net cash –FY2019: Net cash –FY2020: Net cash $941.6MFY2021: Net cash $819.0MFY2022: Net cash $1.1BFY2023: Net cash $1.8BFY2024: Net cash $2.6BFY2025: Net cash $3.5B
FY2017FY2025

Every figure, year by year

Fiscal yearFY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
The business
Revenue$100.8M$198.1M$362.8M$603.5M$1.0B$1.7B$2.1B$2.7B$3.4B
Revenue growth–96.6%83.2%66.3%70.5%62.8%27.1%26.1%27.7%
Gross margin76.8%76.5%75.5%78.4%77.2%79.3%80.7%80.8%80.0%
Operating margin-2.9%-5.6%-5.6%-2.3%-1.9%-3.5%-1.6%2.0%-1.3%
Net income-$2.6M-$10.8M-$16.7M-$24.5M-$20.7M-$50.2M$48.6M$183.7M$107.7M
Net margin-2.6%-5.4%-4.6%-4.1%-2.0%-3.0%2.3%6.8%3.1%
Diluted EPS$-0.04$-0.15$-0.12$-0.08$-0.07$-0.16$0.14$0.52$0.31
Return on invested capital?––––––-14.6%35.3%-15.6%
Cash
Operating cash flow$13.8M$10.8M$24.2M$109.1M$286.5M$418.4M$660.0M$870.6M$1.1B
Capital expenditure$2.4M$9.7M$13.3M$5.4M$10.0M$35.3M$27.6M$34.7M$49.6M
Free cash flow$11.5M$1.2M$10.9M$103.7M$276.6M$383.1M$632.4M$835.9M$1.0B
Stock-based compensation$3.1M$5.2M$19.0M$74.4M$163.7M$363.2M$482.3M$570.3M$750.7M
Owner earnings?$8.4M-$4.1M-$8.1M$29.3M$112.9M$20.0M$150.1M$265.5M$249.9M
Free cash flow per share$0.19$0.02$0.08$0.35$0.89$1.21$1.81$2.33$2.75
Capital allocation
Dividends paid–––––––––
Share repurchases–––––––––
Diluted shares61.3M71.0M139.9M300.4M309.0M315.4M350.3M358.6M363.5M
Share count change?–15.7%97.1%114.7%2.9%2.1%11.1%2.4%1.3%
Balance sheet
Cash and equivalents$60.0M$53.6M$597.3M$224.9M$271.0M$339.0M$330.3M$1.2B$401.3M
Short-term investments––$176.7M$1.3B$1.3B$1.5B$2.3B$2.9B$4.1B
Total debt–––$575.9M$735.5M$738.8M$742.2M$1.6B$983.4M
Net debt–––-$941.6M-$819.0M-$1.1B-$1.8B-$2.6B-$3.5B
Shareholders' equity-$75.7M-$76.0M$782.3M$957.4M$1.0B$1.4B$2.0B$2.7B$3.7B

History of our views

Every view stays as published; revisions say why
ViewPublishedStancePrice then
View 12026-11-01Watch–

Latest filings

All on EDGAR
2026-08-0610-QQuarterly report
2026-08-068-KEarnings release
2026-05-0710-QQuarterly report
2026-05-078-KEarnings release
2026-04-29DEF 14AProxy statement
2026-02-27DEF 14AProxy statement
2026-02-1810-KAnnual report
2026-02-108-KEarnings release
2025-11-0710-QQuarterly report
2025-11-068-KEarnings release

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