CrowdStrike

CRWD· Nasdaq· Cybersecurity

Price of record
$250.43
Oct 30
Base value
$300.07
Bear $129.34 · Bull $463.78
Price vs base
-16.5%
Stance
Watch
Score
6.7
Market cap
$256.4B
P/FCF
195.7x
EV/Sales
52.4x
FCF margin
27.2%
ROIC, 5 yr avg
–
$250.43

Closing price on October 30, 2026, recorded by an editor

Our base value
$300.07 16.5% below

Where the price sits on our values

Bear value
$129.34
Base value
$300.07
Bull value
$463.78
Price of record
$250.43
16.5% below base

Recorded closes against our base value then

Closed onClosePrice vs base
2026-10-30$250.43–

Prices are closes we record when we publish a view and when we check on a company. An owner reads the price against the value, not by the minute.

Company statistics

From the 10-Ks, computed in code · point at a figure for its formula

Our view

Stance
Watch
Base value
$300.07
Bear / bull
$129.34 / $463.78
Price vs base
-16.5%
Implied growth
15.4%
Score
6.7 / 10

Profile · FY2026

Market cap
$256.4B
Enterprise value
$251.9B
Diluted shares
250.6M
Revenue
$4.8B
Free cash flow
$1.3B
Owner earnings
$213.6M

Valuation · FY2026

P/E
–
P/FCF
195.7x
P/Owner earnings
1200.7x
EV/Sales
52.4x
EV/FCF
192.3x
P/B
57.9x

Margins · FY2026

Gross
74.7%
Operating
-6.1%
Net
-3.4%
Free cash flow
27.2%
Owner earnings
4.4%
Stock pay
22.8%

Returns

ROIC, FY2026
–
ROIC, 5 yr avg
–
ROE, FY2026
-3.7%
ROE, 5 yr avg
-7.3%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue, 3 yr
29.0%
Revenue, 5 yr
40.6%
Revenue, 8 yr
58.8%
Diluted EPS, 3 yr
–
Diluted EPS, 5 yr
–
Diluted EPS, 8 yr
–
Free cash flow, 3 yr
22.9%
Free cash flow, 5 yr
34.0%
Free cash flow, 8 yr
–

Financial health · FY2026

Cash and investments
$5.2B
Total debt
$745.5M
Net cash
$4.5B
Debt/Equity
0.2x
Debt/FCF
0.6x

Shareholder returns · FY2026

Dividend yield
–
Payout ratio
–
Buyback yield
–
Shareholder yield
–
Share count, 5 yr
-2.9%

Valuation

Computed from the latest 10-K
Bear value
$129.34
Base value
$300.07
Bull value
$463.78
Price
$250.43
16.5% below base

At $250.43 the price implies revenue growth of 15.4% a year for 5 years, with the base case's other assumptions.

AssumptionBearBaseBull
Revenue growth a year12.0%20.0%25.0%
Free cash flow margin, final year24.0%30.0%33.0%
Share count change a year+2.5%+2.0%+1.5%
Exit multiple of free cash flow25.0x35.0x40.0x
Discount rate10.0%10.0%10.0%
Years555
Value per share today$129.34$300.07$463.78
How these values are computed

Starting from FY2026: revenue $4.8B, 250.6M diluted shares, net cash $4.5B. Final-year free cash flow at the exit multiple, per final share, discounted to today, plus today's net cash per share.

  • Bear: Platform competition slows growth and margins stall.
  • Base: About 20% growth and gradually improving cash margins.
  • Bull: Becomes the consolidated security platform for the enterprise.

Scorecard

6.7
Scorecard: CRWD510Technology edge8/10Switching costs7/10Growth runway8/10Profitability5/10Capital allocation5/10Valuation7/10
CRWD6.7Pick an axis to read the reasons.

Ratings

Five axes judged with a reason; valuation computed from base value and price
Rating
Technology edge8 · Strong

Single agent and cloud data platform; proven at scale and fast to extend.

Switching costs7 · Strong

Replacing an agent on every machine is disruptive, but endpoint is a competitive, consolidating market.

Growth runway8 · Strong

About 22% at $4.8B, with room in cloud, identity and SIEM.

Profitability5 · Average

27% free cash flow margin, but stock pay leaves owner earnings near 4% of revenue and GAAP losses.

Capital allocation5 · Average

No meaningful buybacks; the share count grows about 2% a year.

Valuation7 · Strong

$250.43 is 17% below our base value of $300.07.

Research

View 1 · November 1, 2026

The business

CrowdStrike's Falcon platform runs a lightweight agent on every laptop, server and cloud workload a customer has. The agent streams security telemetry to CrowdStrike's cloud, where it is analysed to detect and stop attacks. Customers start with endpoint protection and add modules on the same agent: identity protection, cloud security, security information and event management (SIEM), threat intelligence and managed detection.

Revenue in FY2026 (year ending January 2026) was $4.81B, up 21.7%.

Moat and switching costs

The single agent and single data platform make each new module cheap to deploy, which drives the cross-selling. Threat intelligence improves with every customer's data. Switching endpoint vendors is a disruptive project touching every machine, so customers rarely do it on price.

The July 2024 faulty update that crashed millions of Windows machines was the moat's stress test. Retention largely held, but competitors (Microsoft Defender, Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne) used it, and CrowdStrike paid in customer concessions.

How the technology shows up in the numbers

Gross margin near 75% and free cash flow of $1.3B in FY2026. But stock pay was $1.1B, so owner earnings (free cash flow minus stock pay) were only about $0.2B, and the GAAP operating margin was -6%. The diluted share count rose 2.4% in FY2026.

The business generates cash; it hands most of it to employees in shares. Net cash of $4.5B gives a strong balance sheet.

Thesis

CrowdStrike can keep compounding revenue near 20% as security consolidates onto fewer platforms. The investment case depends on stock pay falling as a share of revenue so that the cash flow belongs to owners.

We are watching: the business is excellent, the owner economics are not there yet.

Risks

  • Stock pay staying near a quarter of revenue.
  • Platform competition from Microsoft (bundled with its enterprise agreements) and Palo Alto Networks.
  • Another operational incident of the July 2024 kind.

What would change our mind

  • Owner earnings turning meaningfully positive and growing (a reason to own).
  • Net new annual recurring revenue declining for several quarters.
  • Customer losses to bundled platforms.

Updates

0 since the first view

No updates since the view was published.

Financials: ten years from the 10-Ks

Reported numbers open their filing · computed ones show the formula · ˢ split-adjusted

Revenue

$4.8B

+58.8% a year over 8 years

FY2018: Revenue $118.8MFY2019: Revenue $249.8MFY2020: Revenue $481.4MFY2021: Revenue $874.4MFY2022: Revenue $1.5BFY2023: Revenue $2.2BFY2024: Revenue $3.1BFY2025: Revenue $4.0BFY2026: Revenue $4.8B
FY2018FY2026

Margins

Gross74.7%Operating-6.1%Net-3.4%

FY2026

FY2018: Gross 54.1%, Operating -110.7%, Net -114.1%FY2019: Gross 65.1%, Operating -54.8%, Net -56.1%FY2020: Gross 70.6%, Operating -30.3%, Net -29.5%FY2021: Gross 73.7%, Operating -10.6%, Net -10.6%FY2022: Gross 73.6%, Operating -9.8%, Net -16.2%FY2023: Gross 73.2%, Operating -8.5%, Net -8.2%FY2024: Gross 75.2%, Operating -0.6%, Net 2.4%FY2025: Gross 75.0%, Operating -2.9%, Net -0.4%FY2026: Gross 74.7%, Operating -6.1%, Net -3.4%
FY2018FY2026

Free cash flow and owner earnings

Free cash flow$1.3BOwner earnings$213.6M

FY2026

FY2018: Free cash flow -$81.7M, Owner earnings -$94.0MFY2019: Free cash flow -$58.8M, Owner earnings -$79.3MFY2020: Free cash flow $19.7M, Owner earnings -$60.2MFY2021: Free cash flow $303.8M, Owner earnings $154.1MFY2022: Free cash flow $462.6M, Owner earnings $152.7MFY2023: Free cash flow $706.0M, Owner earnings $179.5MFY2024: Free cash flow $989.7M, Owner earnings $341.0MFY2025: Free cash flow $1.1B, Owner earnings $265.5MFY2026: Free cash flow $1.3B, Owner earnings $213.6M
FY2018FY2026

Diluted shares

250.6M

+26.9% over 8 years, net dilution

FY2018: Diluted shares –FY2019: Diluted shares –FY2020: Diluted shares 197.4MFY2021: Diluted shares 290.3MFY2022: Diluted shares 302.9MFY2023: Diluted shares 310.9MFY2024: Diluted shares 243.6MFY2025: Diluted shares 244.8MFY2026: Diluted shares 250.6M
FY2018FY2026

Net cash

$4.5B

$4.5B more cash than debt

FY2018: Net cash –FY2019: Net cash –FY2020: Net cash $912.1MFY2021: Net cash $1.2BFY2022: Net cash $1.3BFY2023: Net cash $2.0BFY2024: Net cash $2.7BFY2025: Net cash $3.6BFY2026: Net cash $4.5B
FY2018FY2026

Every figure, year by year

Fiscal yearFY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
The business
Revenue$118.8M$249.8M$481.4M$874.4M$1.5B$2.2B$3.1B$4.0B$4.8B
Revenue growth–110.4%92.7%81.6%66.0%54.4%36.3%29.4%21.7%
Gross margin54.1%65.1%70.6%73.7%73.6%73.2%75.2%75.0%74.7%
Operating margin-110.7%-54.8%-30.3%-10.6%-9.8%-8.5%-0.6%-2.9%-6.1%
Net income-$135.5M-$140.1M-$141.8M-$92.6M-$234.8M-$183.2M$72.2M-$15.2M-$162.5M
Net margin-114.1%-56.1%-29.5%-10.6%-16.2%-8.2%2.4%-0.4%-3.4%
Diluted EPS––$-0.72s$-0.32s$-0.77s$-0.59s$0.30$-0.06$-0.65
Return on invested capital?–––––––––
Cash
Operating cash flow-$58.8M-$23.0M$99.9M$356.6M$574.8M$941.0M$1.2B$1.4B$1.6B
Capital expenditure$22.9M$35.9M$80.2M$52.8M$112.1M$235.0M$176.5M$254.9M$302.1M
Free cash flow-$81.7M-$58.8M$19.7M$303.8M$462.6M$706.0M$989.7M$1.1B$1.3B
Stock-based compensation$12.3M$20.5M$79.9M$149.7M$310.0M$526.5M$648.7M$861.4M$1.1B
Owner earnings?-$94.0M-$79.3M-$60.2M$154.1M$152.7M$179.5M$341.0M$265.5M$213.6M
Free cash flow per share––$0.10$1.05$1.53$2.27$4.06$4.60$5.23
Capital allocation
Dividends paid–––––––––
Share repurchases$0$2.3M$0$0–––––
Diluted shares––197.4Ms290.3Ms302.9Ms310.9Ms243.6M244.8M250.6M
Share count change?–––47.1%4.3%2.6%-21.6%0.5%2.4%
Balance sheet
Cash and equivalents$63.2M$88.4M$264.8M$1.9B$2.0B$2.5B$3.4B$4.3B$5.2B
Short-term investments–$103.2M$647.3M$0$0$250.0M$99.6M$0–
Total debt––$0$738.0M$739.5M$741.0M$742.5M$744.0M$745.5M
Net debt––-$912.1M-$1.2B-$1.3B-$2.0B-$2.7B-$3.6B-$4.5B
Shareholders' equity-$369.5M-$487.8M$742.1M$870.6M$1.0B$1.5B$2.3B$3.3B$4.4B

History of our views

Every view stays as published; revisions say why
ViewPublishedStancePrice then
View 12026-11-01Watch–

Latest filings

All on EDGAR
2026-08-2710-QQuarterly report
2026-08-268-KEarnings release
2026-06-0410-QQuarterly report
2026-06-038-KEarnings release
2026-05-05DEF 14AProxy statement
2026-03-0510-KAnnual report
2026-03-038-KEarnings release
2025-12-0310-QQuarterly report
2025-12-028-KEarnings release
2025-08-2810-QQuarterly report

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