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Best-in-class observability with high growth and high cash margins, but stock pay takes most of the cash and the usage model swings with customers' cloud bills.

Bear value
$59.76
Base value
$136.28
Bull value
$223.89
Price then
–
AssumptionBearBaseBull
Revenue growth a year12.0%20.0%25.0%
Free cash flow margin, final year25.0%30.0%34.0%
Share count change a year+2.5%+2.0%+1.5%
Exit multiple of free cash flow22.0x32.0x38.0x
Discount rate10.0%10.0%10.0%
Years555
Value per share today$59.76$136.28$223.89
How these values are computed

Starting from FY2025: revenue $3.4B, 363.5M diluted shares, net cash $3.5B. Final-year free cash flow at the exit multiple, per final share, discounted to today, plus today's net cash per share.

  • Bear: Usage optimisation and open-source competition slow growth.
  • Base: About 20% growth with steady cash margins.
  • Bull: AI observability adds a second growth leg.

Scorecard then

Scorecard: DDOG510Technology edge8/10Switching costs7/10Growth runway8/10Profitability6/10Capital allocation5/10Valuationneeds a price
DDOG6.8Pick an axis to read the reasons.

The business

Datadog collects metrics, traces and logs from a company's servers, containers, databases and applications and turns them into dashboards, alerts and investigations. Engineers install its agent and libraries once and then add products: infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, security, real-user monitoring and observability for AI applications.

Pricing is mostly usage-based. Revenue in FY2025 was $3.4B, up 27.7%.

Moat and switching costs

Instrumentation is the moat: once Datadog's agent and libraries are in every service, its dashboards are how on-call engineers think, and the history is in Datadog. Adding a product is a click; replacing the platform is a project.

Usage pricing cuts both ways. Customers optimise their bills (2022 to 2023 was a hard period), and open-source tooling (OpenTelemetry, Grafana) makes the collection layer more portable over time.

How the technology shows up in the numbers

Gross margin of 80% and free cash flow of $1.0B in FY2025 (about 30% of revenue). Stock pay was $751M, so owner earnings were about $250M and GAAP operating margin was near zero. The share count rose 1.3% in FY2025. Net cash of $3.5B.

Thesis

Every new application, and especially AI applications, needs observability, and Datadog wins most of the cloud-native market. The case rests on growth staying above 20% while stock pay falls as a share of revenue.

We are watching for the owner economics to catch up with the business quality.

Risks

  • Customers optimising usage when cloud budgets tighten.
  • OpenTelemetry and cheaper open-source back ends commoditising collection.
  • Stock pay staying above 20% of revenue.

What would change our mind

  • Owner earnings rising toward 15% of revenue (a reason to own).
  • Net revenue retention falling well below 110%.
  • Large customers moving telemetry to cheaper back ends.