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NET · view 1

Unusually good technology and steady 30% growth, but no owner earnings yet and continuous dilution; a business to understand now and own on evidence.

Bear value
$27.54
Base value
$96.37
Bull value
$188.82
Price then
–
AssumptionBearBaseBull
Revenue growth a year15.0%25.0%30.0%
Free cash flow margin, final year15.0%22.0%28.0%
Share count change a year+3.0%+2.0%+1.5%
Exit multiple of free cash flow25.0x40.0x50.0x
Discount rate10.0%10.0%10.0%
Years555
Value per share today$27.54$96.37$188.82
How these values are computed

Starting from FY2025: revenue $2.2B, 348.4M diluted shares, net cash $835.9M. Final-year free cash flow at the exit multiple, per final share, discounted to today, plus today's net cash per share.

  • Bear: Growth slows before margins expand.
  • Base: Steady 25% growth with margins widening on the fixed network.
  • Bull: Workers and zero trust make Cloudflare a default layer of the internet.

Scorecard then

Scorecard: NET510Technology edge9/10Switching costs6/10Growth runway8/10Profitability3/10Capital allocation4/10
NET6.0Pick an axis to read the reasons.

The business

Cloudflare runs a network in hundreds of cities that sits in front of its customers' websites, apps and offices. Traffic passes through it for security (DDoS protection, web application firewall, bot management), performance (content delivery) and zero-trust networking (replacing corporate VPNs). On top of the same network it sells a developer platform (Workers, storage and AI inference at the edge).

Revenue in FY2025 was $2.2B, up 29.8%.

Moat and switching costs

The architecture is the advantage: every server runs the full software stack, so new products ship to the whole network at once and run cheaply on capacity already paid for. A free tier brings millions of developers and websites, which feeds both the threat intelligence and the sales funnel.

Network services can be swapped for rivals (Akamai, Zscaler, the hyperscalers' own offerings) more easily than an application platform, so stickiness depends on customers adopting several products and building on Workers.

How the technology shows up in the numbers

Gross margin near 75%; free cash flow of $287M in FY2025 (13% of revenue). Stock pay was $451M, larger than the free cash flow, so owner earnings were negative (about -$164M) and the GAAP operating margin was -9.6%. The diluted share count grows about 2% a year. Convertible notes are the only debt; net cash was $836M.

Thesis

If the developer platform and zero-trust products make Cloudflare a default layer of the internet, the network's fixed costs turn high growth into high margins later. Today the evidence for owner economics is missing.

We are watching for margin progress before owning.

Risks

  • Dilution continuing at 2% a year with no buybacks.
  • Hyperscalers bundling equivalent services.
  • Valuation: the price has typically assumed many years of high growth.

What would change our mind

  • Free cash flow exceeding stock pay for a full year (a reason to own).
  • Growth falling below 20% before margins expand.
  • Large-customer growth stalling.